November 14, 2012
Civil War II: Obama as Lincoln
By the time Lincoln unleashed the Civil War (1861 – 1865) to force southern states back into the Union, years of contentious politics and civil disobedience had already set the stage. The secessionist states were exercising their Constitutional right to freely disassociate themselves from Washington, D.C, but Lincoln thought otherwise. While ignoring the Constitution, Lincoln precipitated a Civil War that left 620,000 American citizens dead.
The modern secessionist movement has exploded within just a few days, thanks to the Internet, with over 675,000 petition signatures collected thus far. The minimum requirement of 25,000 signatures per state has already been met by Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana and Alabama. However, petitions have been started in all 50 states!
Of course, a Petition has no more legal weight than a Resolution, but it does draw the battle line. Before his Presidential term is over, Obama may well try to actually fill Lincoln’s shoes by starting Civil War II.
Civil War II will be vastly different because the weapons of war are much different. The Administration can use an array of tactics like verbal intimidation, electronic tracking, lawsuits, arrests, harassment, tax audits, foreclosures, etc., before a single shot is fired. As the secessionists push back, the tension will build to a decision point on both sides as to whether human life will actually be lost.
R.J. Rummel wrote in his seminal work, Death by Government, that various governments have killed some 262 million of their own citizens in the last 200 years, far more than were ever lost by wars between nations. Of the countries where “democide” occurred, none of the citizenry ever thought or expected that it could or would happen to them at the hands of their own government… but, they were wrong.
The fact is, evil men commit evil acts. Because of the evil already present at the highest levels of American government, citizens of America can only expect continual “trickle-down evil” as a result. This is not a good mix and will likely end very poorly in the future, whether shots are fired or not.
State of the Economy
Mainstream economists are paid to promote mainstream ideologue. Government economists are paid to promote government ideologue. The Bible says “the love of money is the root of all evil” (1 Tim 6:10) and that applies to economists as well.
The mainstream/government pitch is that the economy is recovering and will be generally stronger in 2013; unemployment will be lower, housing will rise and are we working toward energy independence by 2020.
Housing – Round two of the collapse in housing should hit sometime in 2013 and carry through to 2015 – 2016. The FHA (Federal Housing Agency) is running out of money for the first time in 78 years. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not far behind, and the three of them may need a direct government bailout. Completed foreclosures in 2012 are expected to be around 678,000, which is lower than 2011′s 800,000. However, repossessions increased last month in 35 states. Notably, Nevada increased 76 percent! People who bought even two years ago are falling into the same repossession/default trap as those who bought before the crash began in 2005.
Employment – It isn’t about to get any better in the next four years. There are a raft of companies who are poised to start layoffs just because Obama was re-elected. In October alone, planned layoffs increased 41 percent! Big companies are joining the layoff parade: Boeing, Westinghouse, Caterpillar, Pepsi , US Cellular, Bristol Myers, Corning and Abbott Labs, to name a few. Record numbers of workers have given up on finding a job and are not even in the unemployment statistics. Most jobs are offered as part-time so the employers don’t have to pay benefits, so many end up working 2 or three mediocre jobs and still have to pay for their own benefits.
Fiscal Cliff – It’s really a train wreck certain to happen, where two opposing trains are hurtling toward each other on the same track. It’s happening in Greece, Italy, Spain and other European countries: Politicians, bankers and citizens will never be on the same page without total meltdown and purging of their economic systems. In every conceivable measure and statistic, the U.S. is much worse off than even Greece, yet they are having weekly riots in the streets and we aren’t. Just wait!
U.S. Credit Rating – I fully expect two downgrades by the major ratings agencies by the end of 2013. The first downgrade will be tied to the mediocre solution (if any) for the near-term fiscal cliff problems. The second downgrade will come as the festering grows worse and the U.S. plunges back into a deep recession.
Manufacturing – Eurozone PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) is in contraction at 45.4, and the contraction is accelerating. The U.S. PMI is barely above 50, indicating a minute expansion, but not nearly enough to call it a “recovery.” Business sentiment in the U.S. is weakening and will likely drop below 50 in the next month or two. Obama is anti-business and will evoke policies that curtail business activity; companies are not slow in figuring this out.
Middle Class Destruction – Sixteen percent (almost 50,000,000) of Americans live under the poverty level. Another 8 million are not in the poverty class only because they are receiving either food stamps or unemployment insurance. Enrollments in food stamps have exceeded 47 million (19.33 percent of the population) and continues to rise. Without food stamps, soup lines would eclipse even the worst periods of the Great Depression!
Stocks vs. Economy – Historically, there is a strong link between economic activity and stock market values. The economy has improved since March 2009 when the first leg of the bear market concluded. Rising stock prices bolstered the economy, but not nearly in the same proportion. Now that stocks are most likely headed into Primary Wave 3 down, the economy should track with it in the same direction – down.
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