Wednesday, September 26, 2012

November Election: Obama over Romney?

August Forecast & Review
September 26, 2012


Obama to win?

Last week I stated,  “this writer will cur­rently call ‘Obama to win down the home stretch.’” A reader then referred me to an elec­toral vote tracking web site that under­scores the  prob­a­bility of Obama’s re-election.
Polls that track the pop­ular vote are mis­leading because it isn’t the pop­ular vote who wins the elec­tion: It is the Elec­toral vote. Between the 50 states, a can­di­date must win a total of 270 elec­toral votes to win. Most states give 100 per­cent of their elec­toral votes to the can­di­date with the highest pop­ular vote, rather than sharing them between two candidates.
Cal­i­fornia, for instance, has 55 elec­toral votes at stake. If a can­di­date receives 50.01 per­cent of the pop­ular vote, he gets all 55 votes. Will Obama win Cal­i­fornia? Absolutely! Other large Demo­crat states include Michigan (16), New York (29), Penn­syl­vania (20) and Ohio (18).
You can see in the chart above that Obama far exceeds Romney, and the 270 needed to win, in poten­tial elec­toral votes. Fur­ther­more, Obama slipped below the 270 line only once for a single week in June just after Romney cinched the GOP nom­i­na­tion. There­after, Obama has been riding high.
The real ques­tion now is, can Romney do any­thing to unseat Obama’s elec­toral votes by sweeping states that have been tra­di­tion­ally Demo­crat? First, note the elec­toral votes that he has lost since early June. Sec­ondly, note that he has made zero progress since the GOP Con­ven­tion. A “winner” would be expe­ri­encing some mea­sure of upticks over the last four months, but Romney is no winner thus far.
Thus, I rest my case again: It will be “Obama to win down the home stretch.”
It is cur­rently prob­able that the House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives will remain a Repub­lican majority. It is pos­sible (albeit improb­able) that the Senate could gain a Repub­lican majority. A GOP majority in both cham­bers would dull the effec­tive­ness of another Obama term, but it would not change his deter­mi­na­tion to fun­da­men­tally change America.

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