Bank of America: Markets Are in a 'Twilight Zone' and It's Time to Hold More Cash and Gold

Bloomberg
May 19, 2015

In a note sent out this morning, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a warning for investors: 

Investors remain trapped in “The Twilight Zone”, the transition period between the end of QE and the first rate hike by the Fed, the start of policy normalization...until (a) the US economy is unambiguously robust enough to allow the Fed to hike and (b) the Fed’s exit from zero rates is seen not to cause either a market or macro shock (as it infamously did in 1936-7), the investment backdrop will likely continue to be cursed by mediocre returns, volatile trading rotation, correlation breakdowns and flash crashes. For this reason we continue to advocate higher than normal levels of cash, adding gold and owning volatility in mid 2015. Given extremities of liquidity, profits, technological disruption, regulation, income inequality…potential for a cleansing drop in asset prices cannot be dismissed. Most likely catalysts: Consumer, Rates, A-shares, Speculation, High Yield.

The note also highlights two interesting disconnects in the markets:

1. Investors say they are optimistic, but there is a high level of cash on the sidelines
2. U.S. stock prices are at record highs, but equity funds are seeing outflows

Regarding the first point, one of Bank of America's surveys showed investor sentiment as being “risk-on," which it says is normally associated with less cash on the sidelines.

To the second point, the note says U.S. equity funds have suffered $100 billion of outflows in 2015 while the S&P 500 is near all-time highs, which its data says isn't exactly typical. 

The analysts led by Michael Hartnett attribute this to clients favoring European and Japanese equities at the expense of the U.S and that buying from those not captured in flow data (sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and central banks) could be what's giving U.S. equity indices a boost. 

The note hints that that you actually ought to sell in May and go away, at least for certain asset classes. 

The summer months offer a lose-lose proposition for risk assets: either the macro improves and the Fed gets to hike, which will at least temporarily cause volatility; or more ominously for consensus positioning, the macro does not recover, in which case EPS downgrades drag risk-assets lower. 

SGT REPORT NEWS BRIEF: BANK ACCOUNTS TARGETED, INFLATION SOARING, SILVER FIXED

SGT Report
May 16, 2014

This is a SGT REPORT NEWS BRIEF: Documenting the Collapse for the week ending Friday, May 16th.

In this episode:

- UK Prime Minister David Cameron Targets Bank Accounts
- Fascist US Oligarchy Installs Offspring & Family Friends on Board of Ukraine’s largest Gas Co.
- Food Price Inflation in the U.S. SOARS
- California Burns
- London Silver Fix Folds as Deutsche Bank Flees
- CPM’s Jeffrey Christian Spins the News, Proposes COMPUTER Silver Price Fix

UNPRECEDENTED Shortages Of Ammo, Physical Gold And Physical Silver

The Economic Collapse
April 27, 2013

All over the United States we are witnessing unprecedented shortages of ammunition, physical gold and physical silver.  Recent events have helped fuel a "buying frenzy" that threatens to spiral out of control.  Gun shops all over the nation are reporting that they have never seen it this bad, and in many cases any ammo that they are able to get is being sold even before it hits the shelves.  The ammo shortage has already become so severe that police departments all over America are saying that they are being told that it is going to take six months to a year to get their orders.  In fact, many police departments have begun to trade and barter with one another to get the ammo that they need.  Meanwhile, the takedown of paper gold and paper silver has unleashed an avalanche of "panic buying" of physical gold and physical silver all over the planet.  In the United States, some dealers are charging premiums of more than 25 percent over the spot price for gold and silver and they are getting it.  People are paying these prices even though they are being told that delivery will not happen for a month or two in many cases.  Some dealers are feverishly taking as many orders as they can, and they are just hoping that they will be able to get the physical gold and silver to eventually fill those orders.  Personally, I have never seen anything like this.  If things are this tight now, what is going to happen when the next major financial crisis strikes and people really begin to panic?

The shortages and rationing of ammunition at gun shops all over America just seem to keep getting worse.  The following is from an article by a gun owner down in Texas named Brad Meyer...

If you’d like to see a normally sullen sales clerk chortle with derisive pleasure, just walk into just about any gun range, sporting goods store or mass merchandiser and try and buy a couple boxes of .22 ammunition.

Gun enthusiasts are up in arms about a nationwide shortage of ammunition. Handgun ammo in general is particularly difficult to find – and when you do find it, there are restrictions on the amount you can buy and how much you’re going to be paying for it.

While the list of hard to find ammo is long, .22 long rifle and 9mm handgun ammunition are particularly difficult to find in quantity. And the few places that have it are charging a premium rate and usually limiting purchases to one box, per person, per day.

Many gun owners try to find ammunition by going on the Internet, but things have gotten so tight that now any ammo that becomes available online is often gone within seconds...

There are websites where people across the country post links to where ammunition is available – and it sells out within seconds. Not minutes or hours – seconds.

Unfortunately, all of this demand is also driving up prices.  Just check out what Meyer says is happening to the price of standard .22 ammo...

The demand is driving up the cost of ammunition. Six months ago, standard .22 ammo – the most common type of bullet produced in the world – could be had in bulk for around five cents apiece. It is now going for 50 cents or more on some websites – and people are paying it.

But this shortage is not just affecting private citizens.  According toNewmax, police departments all over the nation are dealing with ammo shortages unlike anything that they have ever seen before...

Sheriff Anthony DeMeo of Nye County, Nev., was told his department’s regular order of 50,000 rounds could take up to a year to arrive.

“This is the first time ever I’ve heard that there’s a problem with a law-enforcement agency getting ammo for their agency,” DeMeo told The Las Vegas Sun.

These departments are not alone. Law enforcement agencies in Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia are among many that are having to limit how much they give their officers due to the shortage.

Could you imagine waiting for "up to a year" to get more ammunition?

Read the entire article

Will Gold and Oil Crashes Lead to the Big One?

SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS!!!
Mark Matheny
April 18, 2013

Mark Matheny discusses the latest in economic turmoil around the world.

Listen to internet radio with Mark Matheny on Blog Talk Radio

History Tells Us That A Gold Crash + An Oil Crash = Guaranteed Recession

The Economic Collapse
April 17, 2013

Is the United States about to experience another major economic downturn?  Unfortunately, the pattern that is emerging right now is exactly the kind of pattern that you would expect to see just before a major stock market crash and a deep recession.  History tells us that when the price of gold crashes, a recession almost always follows.  History also tells us that when the price of oil crashes, a recession almost always follows.  When both of those things happen, a significant economic downturn is virtually guaranteed.  Just remember what happened back in 2008.  Gold and oil both started falling rapidly in July, and in the fall we experienced the worst financial crisis that the U.S. had seen since the days of the Great Depression.  Well, a similar pattern seems to be happening again.  The price of gold has already crashed, and the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil has dropped to $86.37 as I write this.  If the price of oil dips below $80 a barrel and stays there, that will be a major red flag.  Meanwhile, we have just seen volatility return to the financial markets in a big way.  When volatility starts to spike, that is usually a clear sign that stocks are about to go down substantially.  So buckle your seatbelts - it looks like things are about to get very, very interesting.

Posted below is a chart that shows what has happened to the price of gold since the late 1960s.  As you will notice, whenever the price of gold rises dramatically and then crashes, a recession usually follows.  It happened in 1980, it happened in 2008, and it is happening again...

A similar pattern emerges when we look at the price of oil.  During each of the last three recessions we have seen a rapid rise in the price of oil followed by a rapid decline in the price of oil...

That is why what is starting to happen to the price of oil is so alarming.  On Wednesday, Reuters ran a story with the following headline: "Crude Routed Anew on Relentless Demand Worries".  The price of oil has not "crashed" yet, but it is definitely starting to slip.

As you can see from the chart above, the price of oil has tested the $80 level a couple of times in the past few years.  If we get below that resistance and stay there, that will be a clear sign that trouble is ahead.

Read the entire article

Facing Sanctions, Iran to Sideline Dollar by Using Gold in Trade

Editor's Note: Moanmar Ghaddafi and Saddam both made these same attempts to sideline the U.S. dollar by using gold in trade, and both were killed and their lands invaded. Will this be the spark that sets off the powder keg in Iran?


The New American
March 1, 2012

In the face of escalating sanctions imposed by the European Union and the U.S. government, supposedly related to the Iranian nuclear program, officials in Iran announced that the nation would accept gold and currencies other than the dollar in international trade. China, Russia, India, and other major economies have continued to do business with the Islamic Republic despite the growing Western pressure.

"In its trade transactions with other countries, Iran does not limit itself to the U.S. dollar, and the country can pay using its own currency," Iranian central bank governor Mahmoud Bahmani was quoted as saying in state-controlled media. "If a country should so choose, it can pay in gold and we would accept that without any reservation."

Analysts said the move, officially announced Tuesday, represents another serious attack on the status of the already-embattled American dollar. While it currently serves as the global reserve currency — due mostly to its use in paying for oil on international markets — the Federal Reserve-issued debt-based currency is facing increasing challenges on several fronts.

Unlike most of the world’s nations, which have privately owned monetary authorities, such as the Fed, that are controlled by banking cartels, Iran has a state-owned central bank. More than a few analystshave suggested the Islamic Republic’s relatively unique monetary system is actually one of the reasons Western belligerence toward the nation is growing louder.

Prior to the NATO-backed overthrow of strongman Moammar Gadhafi, Libya also had a state-owned central bank. The nation had massive reserves and no foreign debt before “regime change” arrived. But in the early days of the Western-backed rebellion, “rebels” promptly established a new central bank to replace Libya’s existing monetary authority — sparking serious suspicions among analysts.

Gadhafi, whose government was sitting on huge stockpiles of gold bullion, had been seeking partners tocreate a gold-backed currency for the oil market that would have marginalized the U.S. dollar. Before the plan could come to fruition, however, Libya was aggressively bombed by international forces. NATO’s rebels on the ground — known terror leaders, former Gadhafi officials, Western special forces, and assorted Islamic extremists — finished the job and executed the long-serving dictator.      

Iraqi tyrant Saddam Hussein had also threatened to start selling oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. But that scheme was put on ice as well when U.S.-led military forces invaded and occupied the nation in 2003 — first under the guise of “weapons of mass destruction” and supposed links to terror, and later for the supposed purpose of “spreading democracy.”

Western leaders have similarly accused the Iranian dictatorship of secretly developing nuclear weapons. Iranian officials claim its atomic program is for peaceful purposes, and while some analysts disagree, even the U.S. intelligence community has failed to find any evidence of clandestine weapons development in Iran.

Despite the lack of evidence, however, Western governments have become increasingly belligerent, imposing a wide range of sanctions on Iran, its central bank, and even foreign institutions that do business with it. The value of Iran’s fiat currency has plunged in recent months, even against other declining currencies. But with much of the world refusing to go along with sanctions, it is unclear how effective the efforts to punish the nation have been.

“Much has been spun in recent weeks to indicate that as a result of collapsing trade, Iran's economy is in shambles and that the financial embargo hoisted upon the country by the insolvent, pardon, developed world is working,” noted the financial analysis site ZeroHedge. “We had a totally different perspective on things.”

According to ZeroHedge’s take on the situation, the Iranian regime is actually plotting to put the final nail in the dollar’s coffin. “We essentially said that Iran, with the complicity of major trading partners like China, India and Russia is preparing to phase out the petrodollar: a move which would be impossible if key bilateral trade partners would not agree to it,” it noted.   

As The New American has documented extensively, all of the governments ruling those nations — andmany others, too — have openly called for an end to the dollar-based global monetary regime. And according to countless respected analysts, the ultimate collapse of the U.S. dollar will come eventually — it is only a matter of time.

Much of the so-called “establishment” around the world, and even in the West, has called for replacing the current monetary system with a global fiat currency managed by the International Monetary Fund(IMF). But no matter what happens, the notion of gold as currency is back in the headlines — especially now that Iran has openly said it will accept the precious metal in international trade and fiat currencies continue to decline.

“This is a confirmation of gold’s status as a store of value, a universal currency,” Permanent Portfolio Funds manager Michael Cuggino told the Bloomberg news service after the Iranian announcement. “It transcends national borders.”

Read the entire article

GOLD PRICES END TRADING WEEK AT OVER $1,700 PER OUNCE

Kitco.com January 29, 2012 © Baloncici | Dreamstime.com Enlarge Gold is now more expensive than platinum Gold futures for February delivery gained at the end of the trading week, closing at $1,700.10 on New York’s Comex exchange, MarketWatch reports. This represents gold’s most active contract since December 9 and the precious metal’s biggest one-day gain since January 3. Silver for March delivery gained 3.6% and closed at $33.12 per ounce, whileplatinum was also up and finished the week at $1,579.60 an ounce. Due to the consistently rising price of gold, platinum has become a popular option for jewelry consumers, even in markets like India that traditionally favor gold jewelry.  Read the entire article

Recent Gold Takedown A Form of Economic Warfare

Bob Chapman
International Forecaster
Thursday, September 29, 2011

The takedown of gold and silver markets over the past two weeks signified a new milestone in corruption, brazenness, arrogance and it reveals the level of evil control behind our government. This past week, in just one week, saw gold fall almost $200 and silver about $10.00. We have been involved in gold and silver for 53 years and the only event that comes close to this was October 19, 1987, when we witnessed the Bank of England sell down gold $100.00 under the orders of the Fed and the US Treasury, which borrowed the gold from the IMF.

That was illegal, but that means little to the Illuminists who do as they please. Today thanks to Ronald Reagan we have the “President’s Working Group on Financial Markets,” which has legitimatized corruption to conform to the Keynesian model of corporatist fascism. After the close on Friday we were informed, that the CME, which controls the Comex, had raised margin requirements on gold by 21%, silver 16% and in copper by 18%. In retrospect it is obvious that many banking insiders and traders knew early in the week that this momentous psychological warfare was going to be unleashed on these markets. Your government definitely rigged these markets. Today in America and many other places as well, crime pays. What has been done to investors over this past week is not only a crime, but also a disgrace to all Americans.

Read the entire article at Infowars

Ron Paul is Right About the U.S. Monetary System and the Constitution

Tom Woods TV
September 22, 2011



TomWoodsTV on Sep 21, 2011

Tom Woods defends Ron Paul against critics who say he has misread the Constitution in holding that the federal government may make nothing other than gold and silver legal tender.

http://www.tomwoods.com
http://www.facebook.com/thomasewoods

Ron Paul: Is the Gold in Fort Knox Real?

MoneyNews.com

June 14, 2011

 

No one would accuse Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul of being mainstream, including the Texas congressman himself, who relishes his role as an outsider.

So it’s not a huge surprise that Paul has asked Obama administration officials to audit the content of the nation's 700,000 gold bars held in Fort Knox, according to an internal Treasury document obtained by CNBC.

Talk has spread over the Internet that our government has secretly sold off the nation's gold supply and replaced it with metal bars that are merely painted gold.

Ron Paul (Getty Images photo)

Paul, chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy, has previously called for the U.S. gold reserve to be counted and for a return to the gold standard.

But now he wants Treasury Department and U.S. Mint officials to testify at a June 23 subcommittee hearing about the Fort Knox gold’s authenticity.

The Obama administration may not be too enthusiastic about his idea. The Treasury document says it would cost about $15 million, requiring 400 workers to spend six months on the job.

The Treasury's Office of the Inspector General audits the Mint once a year.

Meanwhile, gold prices have bounced back from a three-week low amid concern about inflation.

“Gold is embracing the inflationary discussion,” Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock, tells Bloomberg.

The precious metal traded at $1,522 an ounce Tuesday afternoon.

© Moneynews. All rights reserved.

Read more: Ron Paul: Is the Gold in Fort Knox Real?

Soros Effect: The Market's Clear Rejection of Authority

Kitco.com

June 11, 2011

George Soros has broken central banks, built a billion dollar fortune, and awarded himself fans around the world who adore his no-nonsense speculative approach. While he was once a kingpin of the financial markets, he took a backseat years ago to step away from his Quantum fund, only to return to an audience that has long gone.

Ordinarily, a man of his influence would have the power to sculpt the financial markets as he saw fit. Empowered with billions of dollars, he could find an emerging trade, announce his stake, and allow the financial followers to make his vision a reality. This had been the case with many of his investments; they were necessarily part of the playground that is social proof.

But this time the markets are different – Soros doesn’t matter.

If it were the year 2000, Soros sale of his paper gold positions would have sent the market into a tailspin. Gold would have dropped precipitously as investors, in for the long haul, began to question whether or not he had a leg-up on their investment thesis. However, when Soros exited his gold position just weeks ago, no one listened.

Instead, gold is off only 2% in the wake of his exit. In culling back his exposure, the market dipped, only to find enough buyers and believers who are in it for the long haul. We questioned whether or not Soros had been playing the hand of the manipulators, who should value his influence in shaping market dynamics. He may have played their hand, but individual investors are calling his bluff.

The Biggest Bubble: Optimism

While it may be hard to find an optimist in a world filled with uncertainty, they do certainly exist all around us. In the mainstream press, politicians voice solutions to the United States’ debt woes with grand plans so great they will take a decade to conquer. Talking heads eat up the plans, as if they had already been executed.

But in government, there is no execution. There are only idealists. There are those who forecast changes in government so large that it should only be months before the American economy experiences a great rebound. These idealists are the only optimists left.

On the other hand, the realists—the pessimists to traditional thought—are the only traders willing to stake their bets in the future. They’re doing the executing as the idealists throw up grand plan after grand plan.

In the metals markets, it is he who puts his money where his mouth is that has real influence in the markets. Soros had no money where his mouth was—he had only paper bets in a fictitious market and the certainty that he could make a minor profit in a short-term bull run.

It should be come as no surprise that while the stock, bond, and currency markets may bow down to Soros’ wagers, metal investors aren’t so willing. The widespread rejection of Soros’ brand should be social proof to the rest of us that the metals markets dominated by Wall Street bankers are still financed by every day, average investors who are in metals to own metals, not to own more dollars and cents.

This is only the beginning of a revolution in modern finance—the individuals still call the shots.

Dr. Jeff Lewis

Gaddafi gold-for-oil, dollar-doom plans behind Libya 'mission'?

RussiaToday on May 5, 2011

More speculation has been raised on the reasons for NATO's intervention in Libya. As RT's Laura Emmett reports, the organisation may have been trying to prevent Gaddafi from burying the American buck.

RT on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/RTnews
RT on Twitter: http://twitter.com/RT_com

Gold Climbs on Libyan Unrest, Weakening Dollar; Silver Nears 31-Year High

Bloomberg
By Nicolas Larkin
March 1, 2011

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks about his investment strategy for global stocks and commodities. Gold advanced, approaching a record, as tensions in the Middle East boosted oil prices, increasing demand for precious metals as a protector of wealth and hedge against inflation. Rogers also discusses his strategy for the U.S. dollar. He speaks in Hong Kong with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)

Gold climbed to an eight-week high in London as unrest in Libya and a weakening dollar spurred demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Silver advanced to the highest price since 1980.

Libya’s opposition gained fresh support from the U.S. and European nations as leader Muammar Qaddafi sent forces to regain lost territory. The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s strength, earlier today fell to the lowest level in more than three months. Gold, which traded within 0.9 percent of a record, typically moves inversely to the U.S. currency.

“Prices are up as the dollar weakens slightly and concerns remain that unrest in the Middle East could lead to more significant protests,” John Meyer, an analyst at Fairfax IS in London, wrote in a report today.

Read the entire article

Fake Gold Bars in Fort Knox!

Fake Gold-What's Next?
Viewzone.com

It's one thing to counterfeit a twenty or hundred dollar bill. The amount of financial damage is usually limited to a specific region and only affects dozens of people and thousands of dollars. Secret Service agents quickly notify the banks on how to recognize these phony bills and retail outlets usually have procedures in place (such as special pens to test the paper) to stop their proliferation.




But what about gold? This is the most sacred of all commodities because it is thought to be the most trusted, reliable and valuable means of saving wealth.



A recent discovery -- in October of 2009 -- has been suppressed by the main stream media but has been circulating among the "big money" brokers and financial kingpins and is just now being revealed to the public. It involves the gold in Fort Knox -- the US Treasury gold -- that is the equity of our national wealth. In short, millions (with an "m") of gold bars are fake!



Who did this? Apparently our own government.

Read the entire story

For additional info watch here and
Bob Chapman on Power Hour 11/23/09